Coville v Joyon

Headwinds cause Franck Cammas' Route du Rhum ETA to go back to this afternoon

Tuesday November 9th 2010, Author: James Boyd, Location: none selected

See the latest sched at the bottom of the page and charts of the following - overall, Ultimates, IMOCA 60s, Multi50s and Class 40s

 

Images courtesy of Expedition navigation software and PredictWind.

Still no Franck Cammas. In the early hours Cammas sailed between Antigua and Barbuda, making relatively slow progress upwind in 10-12 knots. At this morning's 0630 GMT sched Groupama 3 was on the final approach to Guadeloupe, but coming in from the north she was still 78 miles away and had to sail down the west side of the island and then hang a left and continue a further 25 miles on to get to the Pointe a Pitre finish line. Cammas' latest ETA is now mid-afternoon.

Click on image to enlarge it

However, as we suspected yesterday, the real battle is on for second place in the Ultimate class between Thomas Coville on Sodebo and  Francis Joyon on IDEC. The latest sched tells it all - Coville is still second - just - less than a mile ahead of Joyon, but significantly while Sodebo is approaching from the north and has averaged 13.9 knots over the last four hours, IDEC is steaming in from the east in more favourable breeze at an average of 18.9. Coville will be devastated if he is beaten even if it is by living legend Francis Joyon.

In the Multi50 class it is all change following the damage to both Franck-Yves Escoffier's Crepes Whaou! 3 and Yves le Blevec's Actual, who have now been overtaken by former Banque Populaire ORMA 60 skipper Lalou Roucayrol on Région Aquitaine - Port Médoc. The former leaders are now limping towards Guadeloupe - Crepes making just 3.4 knots, Actual 4.5. However the boat to watch out for is the last remaining survivor of the three 'new' Multi50s, the 2006 Route du Rhum winner Lionel Lemonchois on Prince de Bretagne. Having suffered main halyard problems earlier in the race Lemonchois had at one point turned back to Spain. He managed to fix the halyard issue, but this had left him was more than 400 miles astern of the leaders and apparently out of contention. Now he is on the charge - up to 5th place, 156 miles off the lead, and having averaged 17.6 knots over the last four hours Prince de Bretagne is currently the fastest boat in the entire Route du Rhum fleet. We see a story developing here...

The IMOCA 60 race is turning into a two horse affair between the 2006 winner Roland Jourdain on board Veolia Environnement and this year's Solitaire du Figaro and Transat AG2R winner Armel le Cleac'h on BritAir. At present they are in SSEerly breeze to the east of the shallow depression that has been lurking to the north of the Caribbean since late last week and over the last 24 hours has been creating a game of snakes and ladders between the lead boats. At the last sched yesterday le Cleac'h, to the southeast, had closed to within 17.9 miles of Jourdain in terms of DTF but since then Jourdain has found strong breeze closer to the centre of the depression allowing him to make better progress, extending his lead back up to 34 miles at the latest sched.

We reckon that Jourdain is looking in good shape in the short term at least - by this evening the depression is forecast to have funnelled off to the north and Jourdain will forge on to west until he picks up the favourable northwesterly wind shift, on which to gybe south. Being further west this will all happen for Jourdain before it does for le Cleac'h. Unfortunately though while the short term plan is looking good, as has been the case for Cammas and Coville, the path south towards Guadeloupe is looking far from straight forward and we can expect the present ETA into Guadeloupe (already back to Saturday) to be pushed back further.

And this leaves the southerly group... Arnaud Boissieres on Akena Verandas and Michel Desjoyeaux on Foncia continue to dive south, with the idea being that this allows them to head for Guadeloupe on a more favourable heading, just as Joyon is currently enjoying. Unfortunately this doesn't look like it is going to pan out nearly as well. As we observed yesterday, with the Azores high so far east, the current forecast has the southerly boat running out of Trade Winds on the final run into Guadeloupe. In fact come the end of the week there appears to be very little wind anywhere to the north or east of the Caribbean the long term forecast indiciating that when it does fill in, it will do so from the east. Expect a lot of thumb twiddling this weekend.

In the Class 40s Thomas Ruyant on Destination Dunkerque has at the latest sched reached the pleasant psychological level of having just notched up a three figure lead ahead of Yvan Noblet on Appart City and Sam Manuard on Vecteur Plus still jockeying for second albeit separated by some 130 miles on the water - Manuard is on the same line as Ruyant with Noblet off to the southeast. 

Nicolas Troussel on Credit Mutuel de Bretagne continues to lead the group to the south and impressively, considering how far behind he was, is now up to fifth, 171 miles off the lead. Pete Goss on DMS is still diving south and remains the most southerly boat but this has caused him to drop back to 120 miles astern of Troussel, who's course is now converging with Ruyant (although they are still 400 miles apart on the water).

Weather-wise for the Class 40s, they are all at present to the south of the Azores high. To their west of the northerly group a strong band of SSEerlies is developing over the next 24 hours between the high and the shallow depression off the Caribbean (that is shifting north). These are likely to cause Ruyant to extend further once he hits these, however the wind is then forecast to veer into the southeast (ie on the nose) ahead of a front. There could then be the opportunity to break through the front and head south powered by the strong northeasterlies behind it (a la Phil Sharp four years ago). It seems reading the long term forecast that the two best scenarios are either to be west or south. West is the exciting route with lots of weather hurdles to encounter, while to the south it will be a much more pleasant ride in southerlies or easterlies. Between the forecast is indicating either no wind or strong headwinds.

 

Latest Comments

  • James Boyd 09/11/2010 - 19:07

    Yep - they have to do a nice anti-clockwise lap of Guadeloupe and approach the Pointe a Pitre finish line (on the south side of the island) from the west. Yours, wishing I was there... etc
  • David Bains 09/11/2010 - 12:46

    I can find no reference to the final route. Judging by Joyon's course now the finishers have to circle Guadeloupe anticlockwise? In which case we already know the first three places!
  • David Bains 09/11/2010 - 11:54

    The figures on the RdRh website seem misleading to me. G3 is 55nm upwind to either the SE or SW corner of Guadeloupe, so around 100nm tacking in ever lightening airs in the lee of the island, currently doing 7kts! Joyon on Idec by contrast is 170nm from the SE point of the island, but reaching in at 18kts. Although no doubt his wind will lighten too. However I think this is going to be very close, Joyon's boat is much lighter and easier to handle.

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    Pos Boat Lat Long Spd Crs Spd Crs Spd Dist DTF DTL
            Inst   4 hr aver   24 hour      
      Ultimate                    
    1 Groupama 3 16 52.77' N 61 51.71' W 11 212 7.7 183 8.5 203.2 78.1 0
    2 Sodebo 19 49.13' N 60 38.30' W 14 169 13.9 164 12.5 299.9 264.8 186.6
    3 Idec 17 33.69' N 58 11.53' W 18 251 19 254 14.6 350.1 265.6 187.4
    4 Gitana 11 18 03.66' N 51 36.56' W 12 256 11.9 254 8.9 213.5 638.9 560.8
    5 La Boite à Pizza 18 06.75' N 43 14.91' W 10.5 211 10.4 215 10.4 250.4 1113.9 1035.7
    6 Défi Cancale 25 04.87' N 37 25.63' W 15.5 219 14 219 11.8 282.7 1507.9 1429.8
    7 Saint-Malo 2015 22 49.81' N 36 10.72' W 12.5 212 10.9 219 9.9 237.4 1543.3 1465.2
    ABD Oman Air Majan                    
    ABD Côte d'Or II                    
                           
      IMOCA 60s                    
    1 Veolia Environnement 28 56.04' N 54 53.90' W 14.5 227 14.3 230 8.5 203.2 892.1 0
    2 Brit Air 27 24.57' N 51 20.76' W 13 241 13.1 238 9.1 218.7 928.1 36
    3 Virbac Paprec 3 29 08.38' N 51 28.53' W 13.5 255 11.5 244 10.1 243.2 1001.9 109.8
    4 PRB 29 44.04' N 52 19.16' W 15.5 232 12.2 233 6.6 157.7 1003.9 111.8
    5 Safran 30 06.67' N 52 04.36' W 13.5 259 11 245 6.7 160.2 1029.8 137.7
    6 DCNS 1000 30 28.87' N 50 31.24' W 5 229 3.4 271 7.4 178.6 1095.8 203.7
    7 Akena Vérandas 23 13.55' N 41 21.80' W 11.5 210 13.3 206 11.2 268.5 1269.9 377.8
    8 FONCIA 22 27.96' N 40 08.06' W 10.5 195 12.7 215 9.7 232.2 1324.4 432.3
    ABD Groupe Bel                    
                           
      Multi50s                    
    1 Région Aquitaine - Port Médoc 27 47.52' N 48 13.17' W 13 217 11.9 233 11.1 267.5 1065.3 0
    2 Actual 26 57.54' N 46 29.18' W 5 236 4.5 238 3.6 85.6 1109.7 44.4
    3 Crêpes Whaou ! 26 13.47' N 45 16.45' W 5 226 3.4 228 2.5 60.7 1140.3 75
    4 La mer révèle nos sens 32 38.82' N 51 16.79' W 5.5 279 5.6 247 7.5 180.2 1178.8 113.4
    5 Maître Jacques 22 17.07' N 42 29.48' W 5.5 282 10.3 218 11.8 284.2 1194.8 129.5
    6 Prince de Bretagne 27 34.86' N 44 25.93' W 18 241 17.6 257 15.5 371.8 1222.1 156.8
    7 AXA Atout Coeur pour AIDES 20 17.17' N 39 45.24' W 10.5 223 15.5 227 12.2 292.5 1322.7 257.4
    8 FenetreA - Cardinal 22 03.40' N 39 32.61' W 10.5 231 10.4 239 11.8 284.1 1351.3 286
    9 Naviguez Anne Caseneuve 24 47.06' N 36 53.79' W 13.5 221 12.4 214 9.7 232.5 1519.9 454.6
    10 CitoyensduMonde.net 27 26.51' N 33 25.96' W 18.5 208 8.2 206 10 240.7 1754.5 689.1
    11 Nootka 33 05.72' N 31 31.41' W 9.5 245 9.1 266 9.3 222.2 1967 901.6
    ABD Delirium                    
                           
      Class 40s                    
    1 Destination Dunkerque 35 03.44' N 39 59.41' W 14 252 10.8 248 9.7 233.7 1666.8 0
    2 Appart City 33 52.67' N 36 28.87' W 7.5 217 8.8 218 8.8 211.3 1769.1 102.2
    3 Vecteur Plus 35 45.85' N 37 50.32' W 7.5 218 8.2 233 9.1 218.9 1776.3 109.5
    4 Monbana 35 55.81' N 37 07.37' W 10.5 256 8 233 8.6 207 1810.4 143.5
    5 Crédit Mutuel de Bretagne 31 18.08' N 33 22.09' W 9 273 9.2 261 10 239.9 1837.8 171
    6 Mare.de 35 23.88' N 35 20.72' W 10 204 8.5 216 8 191.2 1864.7 197.9
    7 Groupe PICOTY 34 41.57' N 34 29.43' W 8 213 8.3 215 7.9 190.3 1878.9 212.1
    8 Routes du Large 34 09.48' N 32 56.40' W 11.2 182 7.8 212 6.9 165.2 1930.7 263.8
    9 Marie Toit - Caen La Mer 31 24.15' N 31 06.61' W 12 224 8.7 209 9.6 229.7 1947.2 280.4
    10 Des Pieds et Des Mains 30 39.37' N 30 44.64' W 11 214 9.4 216 8.6 207 1949.2 282.4
    11 DMS 30 20.68' N 30 25.49' W 10.5 193 8.7 207 9.1 218.3 1958.6 291.7
    12 Bureau Vallée 35 22.85' N 33 02.15' W 7.5 194 5.4 227 6.2 147.9 1961.4 294.6
    13 Partouche 31 51.50' N 30 36.90' W 7.5 258 10.3 260 9.6 229.4 1980.7 313.8
    14 COMIRIS - Pôle Santé Elior 35 57.80' N 32 41.62' W 11.5 249 9.5 253 8.5 205.1 1993.1 326.3
    15 TZU HANG 34 40.90' N 31 45.34' W 10.5 196 8.5 196 5.1 122.3 1997.3 330.5
    16 EDF Energies Nouvelles - VESTAS 36 32.33' N 32 56.88' W 8.5 249 7.4 239 7.4 177.4 1999.7 332.9
    17 UniCredit 38 49.54' N 34 43.68' W 6.5 240 5.7 228 6.5 155.2 2004.4 337.6
    18 Avis Immobilier 35 38.20' N 32 10.19' W 8 254 8.3 241 8.5 204.1 2005.9 339
    19 40 Degrees 38 47.56' N 34 33.40' W 3.5 224 6.8 238 7 167.9 2009.7 342.9
    20 Techneau 36 46.83' N 32 51.35' W 9.5 222 8 239 8.1 193.5 2011 344.2
    21 Grassi Bateaux 35 51.68' N 32 00.26' W 9.5 278 8.2 248 8.3 198.4 2019.4 352.6
    22 Ville de Douarnenez 37 06.40' N 32 23.01' W 10.5 227 8.1 216 7.6 181.4 2040.4 373.6
    23 GEODIS 37 13.57' N 32 20.22' W 5 222 8.9 231 7.6 182.1 2046 379.2
    24 Novedia / Initiatives 36 51.85' N 31 46.79' W 8.5 227 9.2 223 8.7 208.3 2058.1 391.3
    25 Gonser Group - Cambio 37 34.78' N 32 04.81' W 11 255 9 234 8.4 201.1 2067.4 400.6
    26 Regis Guillemot Charter 37 21.01' N 31 52.31' W 9 231 8.9 221 8.7 209.4 2068.9 402.1
    27 ICAP Orca 36 51.24' N 31 24.93' W 10 218 8.6 219 8.5 202.9 2073.1 406.3
    28 TALES "Villa Esperanza" 32 05.39' N 28 26.36' W 10.5 257 8.9 250 10.2 244.1 2089.3 422.5
    29 Les 3 caps-Respectons la terre 37 20.48' N 30 56.39' W 1.5 189 5 160 7 167.7 2106.7 439.9
    30 Drekan Energie - Groupe Terrallia 36 45.91' N 30 27.20' W 11.5 239 9.3 222 5.4 129.7 2111.1 444.3
    31 Cheminées Poujoulat 35 23.24' N 29 28.19' W 11.5 239 9.1 230 9.4 225.7 2116.9 450
    32 Territoires Attitude 33 37.30' N 28 04.50' W 9.5 250 8.3 249 8.7 209.4 2138.6 471.7
    33 Fermiers de Loué - Sarthe 32 14.16' N 27 16.75' W 7 225 8.3 244 8.7 207.7 2147.8 481
    34 Kogane 32 02.77' N 25 36.71' W 8 240 7 247 9.2 221.6 2225 558.2
    35 Tradition Guadeloupe 31 51.45' N 25 28.06' W 9.5 232 7.4 247 8.2 196.2 2228.8 561.9
    36 Green Energy 4 seasons - Diabetics Challenges 39 03.65' N 28 19.37' W 10 238 7.6 244 7.5 179.4 2265.1 598.2
    37 Ville de Saint Grégoire 35 28.70' N 23 57.65' W 8.5 213 10.1 226 9.3 223.4 2368 701.2
    38 Voiles 44 Région Guadeloupe 34 18.12' N 21 29.87' W 6.5 218 8.8 226 8.5 203.1 2461.6 794.8
    39 BINIC un port dans la ville 34 22.39' N 21 22.87' W 10.5 218 9.1 218 7.2 173.2 2468.3 801.5
    40 CHIMIREC - EVTV 34 55.68' N 20 39.03' W 9.5 227 9 230 8.1 194.6 2512.1 845.3
    41 White Swallow 41 19.81' N 19 51.02' W 15.5 207 10.4 193 1.3 31.3 2674 1007.2
    42 Tieto Passion 38 41.42' N 9 25.12' W 0 0 0 71 0 0.2 3089.3 1422.5
    ABD Adriatech                    
    ABD Solo                    
                           
      Rhum                    
    1 Vento Di Sardegna 34 48.61' N 32 28.53' W 8.5 248 9.2 253 8.5 205.1 1969.3 0
    2 Acapella 37 14.05' N 32 02.92' W 7 223 7.9 231 7.9 188.5 2058.1 88.8
    3 Jeunes Dirigeants - Lorans 37 59.84' N 31 48.42' W 8 233 8.9 232 8.5 204 2091.4 122.1
    4 monopticien.com 34 15.70' N 29 16.88' W 9 219 8.2 240 9 215.6 2097.6 128.3
    5 Pour le Rire Médecin 34 44.97' N 29 29.38' W 9.5 259 8.4 249 9.4 224.7 2100 130.7
    6 ATNinc.com 34 26.62' N 28 05.83' W 17 233 9 236 10 240.8 2155.9 186.6
    7 Destination CALAIS 38 31.81' N 28 37.54' W 0 0 0 288 3.2 77.7 2237.5 268.2
    8 Eurosanit 33 23.24' N 24 37.29' W 10 236 7.3 233 8.7 208.1 2296.7 327.4
    9 VALE Nouvelle Calédonie 32 45.16' N 20 33.45' W 8 204 7.3 212 6.5 156.5 2483.1 513.8
    ABD GENERIK - EXP'HAIR en Beauté                    
    ABD Un monde bleu tout en vert                    
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