On the back foot

As Banque Populaire sees her biggest deficit yet on Groupama 3

Image above courtesy of Expedition Navigation Systems and PredictWind. See Brian Thompson's updates from on board here

Another disappointing 24 hours for Pascal Bidegorry and the crew of Banque Populaire, now just south of the latitude of Rio. On her journey last year Groupama 3 had been able to start bearing east at this point, while still in light winds, Banque Populaire doesn't yet have this luxury and hence her deficit on the record holder's pace has grown to its largest yet - now almost 200 miles, with more pain yet to come.

The weather situation in the South Atlantic remains complicated, dominated by the high, currently centred towards South Africa, while closer to Banque Populaire there is a shallow depression forming over Rio with a second area of high pressure to the south, off Uruguay. This latter high is key to the maxi-tri's progress over the next couple of days as the forecast has it shifting east and this will enable Banque Populaire to slip around the west side of it in favourable northerlies. However as we mentioned yesterday, the forecast is still indicating that she will cross 40°S and even then she is not out of the woods. On these record attempts being able to make a good transition on to the 'Southern Ocean' expressway is an important hurdle and Banque Populaire's transition doesn't look that straightforward with a third area of high pressure to the southwest on Wednesday forecast to join the high Banque Pop wants to round, so unless she can find some pressure and turn on her afterburners she could well get caught in the middle of this union.

By Thursday the merging of the highs is complete and the weather has sorted itself out again, however the centre of the high is annoyingly a long way south, centred at 45°S. It could be the weekend by the time that Banque Populaire passes her virtual rival.